With half of 2018 already in the books, here’s a rundown of how certified pre-owned vehicle sales fared in the opening six months of the year, based on reports from individual brands and automakers.

Starting with Toyota, its 3,445 certified sales in June were up from 3,007 last June. Six-month totals are at 18,079 units, compared to 15,526 in the first half of 2017.

(Editor's Note: The synopsis of this story in the AuSM Canada Extra enewsleter incorrectly noted the six-month 2018 total as 3,445 units. Toyota moved 3,445 CPO units in June, and 18,079 in first half of 2018) 

There were 539 Lexus certified vehicles sold in June, up from 439 a year ago. First-half sales totaled 2,537 units, compared to 2,167 in the first six months of 2017.

Nissan reported 720 CPO sales for June, up from 661 in June 2017. It moved 4,234 CPO units in the first half of 2018, down from 5,408 last year.

Infiniti’s certified sales in June were at 93, down from 101 a year ago. Through six months, it has retailed 553 CPO units, against 764 in the year-ago period.

At Porsche, there were 284 certified sales last month, up from 175 in June 2017 and “surpassing the previous best June result and establishing a new high-water mark sales month in the process,” the company said in a sales release.

First-half sales for Porsche climbed from 973 to 1,230.

Volkswagen stayed on a record trek with 1,929 certified sales for the month, up from 1,418 in June 2017.

VW moved 10,212 CPO vehicles in the first half of the year, compared to 7,798 a year ago.

Mercedes-Benz posted 1,262 CPO sales in June, compared to 1,316 a year ago. First-half certified sales were at 6,917, versus 6,969 in the opening half of 2017.  

Volvo had 975 certified sales for June.

From a “torrid” auto sales pace to delinquency improvement in the Oil Patch, to perhaps Canada being in better position than its neighbor to handle the clash over trade with the United States, Matt Fabian shared plenty of positive developments stemming from TransUnion Canada’s latest Industry Insights Report.

Fabian, director of research and analysis for TransUnion Canada, began a conversation with AuSM Canada by highlighting that first-quarter auto loan volumes increased by 3.7 percent year-over-year, driven by an 8.5 percent increase in new auto loan originations.

Meanwhile, delinquency rates in the auto sector — contracts at least 60 days past due — fell by 12 basis points in Q1 to 1.7 percent.

“From our perspective, as the U.S. auto market has softened over the last several quarters we’ve been waiting for that to happen in Canada but it hasn’t,” Fabian said. “The first quarter of 2018 again we saw a record January and February, so there is still a torrid pace in terms of vehicle sales, which has fueled a lot of growth in auto loan volumes. We’ve seen a very active auto space.

"The risk protocols from the different auto lenders and the governance they’ve had have been pretty effective. Despite in the backdrop of a growing economy, growing auto sales and increased consumer debt, we still see fairly good risk behavior,” he continued.

TransUnion reported the average balance carried on their auto loans in Q1 stood at $20,786, a 3.5-percent rise year-over-year.

Oil patch improvement

Spurred by improved economic conditions and the continued recovery in oil prices, TransUnion found that oil producing regions such as Alberta and Saskatchewan are beginning to experience improvement in their respective consumer credit markets.

Fabian explained that improving credit performance in these provinces is arriving nearly four years after the start of rapid oil price declines at the end of 2014. Lower oil prices negatively impacted the local economies heavily tied to the energy industry.

In the summer of 2015, TransUnion published a report that projected credit product delinquencies in these regions to deteriorate at a faster rate than the rest of the country as a result.

Delinquencies did, in fact, rise in both Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, Fabian pointed out that Q1 may have been a turning point since TransUnion spotted the first significant annual decline since 2015.

TransUnion found that serious consumer delinquency rates (90 or more days past due) dropped by 15 basis points in Alberta and 39 basis points in Saskatchewan.

Source: TransUnion Canada

“We may be seeing the beginning of the consumer rebound in the oil producing regions out west.  Economic conditions have been improving for a few quarters, as employment improves across the country,” Fabian said. “This is particularly good news for consumers in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as they were most negatively impacted by the oil crash from a few years ago.”

TransUnion recapped that oil prices reached $100 (USD) in Q1 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, before declining to $48 in Q1 2015 and even further to $35 in Q1 2016. However, oil prices are back on an upswing and reached $63 as of Q1 of this year.

At the same time, Fabian mentioned unemployment levels in both Alberta and Saskatchewan have improved over the last few years. Alberta’s unemployment rate continued a strong downward trend to 6.3 percent in Q1 from 7.9 percent in Q1 of last year while Saskatchewan dipped slightly during that same timeframe — from 6.0 percent to 5.8 percent, according to data from Statistics Canada.

TransUnion also found that consumers in these regions also are limiting their debt exposure.

Analysts found that average non-mortgage debt balance per consumer in Alberta and Saskatchewan grew below the national average in Q1 from the previous year, at 1.9 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. The national average rose 4.5 percent in that same timeframe to $29,181.

“In times of crisis, we often see debt balances on products such as credit cards rise at greater rates, as consumers use credit increasingly to make ends meet. It is therefore a positive sign to see to see the use of credit in the oil provinces actually grow more slowly than the country overall rate,” Fabian said.

“When we compare the oil-producing provinces versus the non-oil-producing provinces, there is still a bit of a gap, but the encouraging thing is the trend,” he continued.

“It’s something we’ve been waiting for as the economy has rebounded,” Fabian went on to say. “It’s going to be a long tail for risk. You usually don’t see a recovery in delinquency happen until several months after. As the economy is coming around, we’re starting to see good signs.”

General credit trends

TransUnion also indicated the first quarter of 2018 was highlighted by continued solid performance by Canadians in most parts of the country.

The number of consumers with access to credit increased by 1.2 percent on an annual basis to close Q1 2018 at 28.6 million. The 90- days past due average consumer delinquency rate also dropped on an annual basis by 28 basis points to 5.4 percent in the same timeframe.

Accounts entering collections status also declined by 21 percent to 0.7 million between Q1 2018 and Q1 2017.

The overall risk tier mix of Canadian consumers in TransUnion’s national consumer credit database improved in Q1 2018, with 68 percent of consumers considered prime or better — a 2.2-percent increase over last year. The super prime (lowest risk) segment grew the most with an increase of 76 basis points, while the proportion of subprime (highest risk) consumers in Canada declined by 36 basis points from last year.

“We continue to see strong consumer credit performance over the past year, with apparently limited impact due to the rising interest rate environment. This dynamic is something we will continue to monitor,” Fabian said.

Talking trade

Much has been publicized about the trade discussions involving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Donald Trump, who are both laying out the positions of Canada and the U.S., respectively.

Without delving into the politics of these trade exchanges thus far, AuSM Canada asked Fabian about the potential implications on dealerships and auto finance companies, depending the severity of tariffs implemented.

“From the auto sector, it could affect productivity and output, depending on what tariffs are put on and how the negotiations go,” Fabian said. From a manufacturing and output perspective, it’s going to effect to impact manufacturers, which could in turn lead to things like layoffs or reduced production. There could be pockets of Canada in the auto producing regions, like Ontario, affected from a broader macroeconomic scale and unemployment.

“It also could lead to higher auto prices based on the tariffs that could affect demand from a dealer and sales perspective. That might be the thing that triggers the slowdown in vehicle sales,” he continued.

“But honestly the biggest hit is going to be on the U.S. There is going to be a serious shortage going into the United States as a result,” Fabian went on to say. “The United States doesn’t necessarily have more capacity to build more vehicles. The prices of vehicles in the U.S. could go up quite radically.

“It's going to affect both sides, but from a Canadian perspective you’re going to see those pockets that have a reliance on manufacturing,” he added. “We might see more stress in those areas. I don’t know if it will manifest itself any more than that, but there is that potential headwind.”

Last month was the best August ever for new-car sales in Canada and a 7-percent improvement over year-ago figures, according to Scotiabank.

Pickup truck sales were particularly strong during the month, and they’ve had an especially stout performance this year in Alberta, the company said in an Auto News Flash released Tuesday.

Scotiabank said there was a 20-percent year-over-year spike in pickup sales for the month, with the Prairie provinces climbing as well as business investments.

Alberta is where these vehicles are getting the most attention. Sales there for pickups have climbed 30 percent year-to-date, the company said, and they have a 35-percent market share in the province. That’s about twice as strong as the rest of the country.

Overall, the annualized rate of new-car sales in Canada in August was, once again, more than 2 million units, Scotiabank said in Tuesday’s report. This was driven by double-digit sales spikes for domestic and import light trucks. 

A week ago, Scotiabank published its Global Auto Report, with sales forecasts/figures through July.

The company was predicting an estimated 2 million new cars to be sold this year, down from annualized rate in the first six months of the year (2.044 million) but up from the 1.949 million new-car sales in 2016 and 1.898 million sales a year earlier. 

The certified pre-owned market in Canada appears like a healthy one for those reporting monthly and quarterly sales to AuSM Canada.

Starting with Audi, not only was March its best-ever month, the first quarter was Audi’s best-ever start to a year, the company said.

Audi’s CPO sales climbed 38.5 percent year-over-year, with 727 units moved in March. Through three months, Audi’s numbers are up 16.3 percent with 1,624 sales.

BMW, which includes both CPO and non-CPO in its numbers, said it sold 2,070 pre-owned units for the month (up 14 percent) and 5,011 (up 13 percent) in Q1.

“March represents the best pre-owned sales month on record for BMW Canada,” said Robert Staffieri, national manager, pre-owned sales at BMW Canada. “Strong CPO market messaging, along with the ability of our retailer network to deliver an exceptional buying experience continues to resonate with consumers.”

Next up, Toyota sold 2,594 certified vehicles in March, up from 1,921 a year ago. In the first quarter, it moved 6,618 CPO units, up from 4,696 in Q1 2016.

Volvo had 179 certified sales in March, up from 159 a year ago. It moved 490 CPO vehicles in Q1, up from 394.

Mercedes-Benz reported CPO sales climbing 5.2 percent year-over-year in March, reaching 1,379 units. It sold 3,030 CPO units in Q1 (up 8.0 percent).

As the company prepared to share its 2016 used- and new-vehicle sales totals, AutoCanada announced late on Thursday that Thomas Orysiuk is resigning from his position as president and as a member of the company’s board of directors.

The dealer group said Orysiuk’s resignation as president and director is effective on Friday, and AutoCanada chief executive officer Steven Landry would assume the role of president and CEO.

“On behalf of the board of directors, we sincerely thank Tom for his many years of dedicated service as an officer and director of AutoCanada — and particularly in this year of transition,” Landry said. “We wish him all the best in his future endeavors.”

The executive action coincided with AutoCanada releasing its fourth-quarter and full-year financial statement, which included reports of annual revenue and gross profit staying nearly flat year-over-year.

The company said revenue from existing and new dealerships came in at $2.89 billion in 2016, down slightly from the 2015 figure of $2.90 billion. Its gross profit from existing and new dealerships remained flat at $486.1 million in 2016, as a year earlier it was $487.7 million.

Looking at how the dealer group moved metal, AutoCanada reported that its 55 stores retailed a total 19,561 used vehicles in 2016, down slightly from the 2015 total of 20,342 used units. On the new-model side, AutoCanada said its combination of retail and fleet transactions resulted in a sum of 40,032 units last year; that’s down by 2,425 units year-over-year.

“Fiscal 2016 capped off the second consecutive year where our core markets faced deteriorating business conditions. However, wherever there are challenges there are also opportunities, and I believe AutoCanada is well-positioned to execute on its strategy and create value for shareholders,” Landry said.

“We are responding to economic conditions in our key markets by focusing on market share, operating expenses, accretive acquisitions, and delivering consistent performance across all of our dealerships,” he continued.

Contained within the company’s outlook for 2017, AutoCanada said it plans to spend approximately $30.9 million on dealership relocations and expansions.

“We are under construction on the relocation of Audi Winnipeg, which we anticipate will lead to increased customer traffic and sales. We also plan to begin construction on two new open-point locations in Calgary and Ottawa,” the company said.

AutoCanada went on to mention its five-year capital spending outlook is approximately $145.3 million.

“This level of spending, along with the company’s current dividend commitments, are expected to be balanced with internally generated cash flow,” AutoCanada said.

AutoCanada also announced that it has executed an agreement with its syndicated lending partners to amend and restate its $250 million revolving credit facility while extending the maturity date of the agreement by two years to May 2020.

Although there were no changes to the composition of lenders included in the syndicate, AutoCanada indicated HSBC and RBC will co-lead the agreement while HSBC will retain its position as sole book-runner and agent.

Under the terms of the new agreement, AutoCanada pointed out there are no changes to the $250 million borrowing limit or debt covenants although modifications have been made to the facility pricing grid, which the company anticipates will allow for more effective management of financing charges.

“Despite the sustained economic challenges of the past two years, this new agreement highlights the unwavering confidence our lending partners, HSBC, RBC and ATB, have in AutoCanada and their continued support for the growth and success of our company,” AutoCanada chief financial officer Chris Burrows said. 

“We believe that this agreement will allow us to continue to pursue and implement our strategic vision and underlines the strength of our relationships with our valued financing partners,” Burrows added.

Dealer performance will be one of the many topics discussed, as there are more than 100 people from 74 different dealerships registered for the , which will be held April 3-4 at the Westin Harbour Castle in Toronto.

And the list has been growing steadily, say conference organizers.

If you’d like to connect with these folks, .

Canadian new-car sales began the year in rapid fashion, but take that with a grain of salt.

It is likely that 2017 will be the end to a four-year streak of record sales in Canada, according to Scotiabank.

The company’s latest Global Auto Report indicates that the annualized new-car sales pace in January was more than 2 million units; however, it’s projected that Canada will actually end up selling 1.94 million new cars this year.

That would be down, albeit slightly, from last year’s record 1.95 million new-car sales.

“Recent price increases for new cars and light trucks have started to dampen affordability, and will likely outweigh the positive impact of stronger economic growth in Canada this year,” Carlos Gomes, who is Scotiabank’s senior economist and auto industry specialist, said in a news release accompanying the report.

“Although vehicle sales in the commodity-producing provinces are finally starting to recover from the sharp double-digit declines of recent years, activity in the rest of the country is likely to trend lower,” he said.

Alberta is expected to lift new-car sales from 220,000 units to 223,000 units this year, and Saskatchewan is projected to see its new-car sales rise from 51,000 to 52,000.

This would mark the end of a downward slide in Alberta car sales that reached a 30-percent peak-to-trough downturn, Scotiabank said.

“Firmer oil prices and the rebuilding in Fort McMurray are expected to boost economic growth in the province to around 2 percent this year, reversing the first back-to-back annual economic contraction since the early 1980s,” Scotiabank said. “Economic activity and vehicle purchases are also bottoming in Saskatchewan with late-2016 sales largely in line with a year ago.”

And considering that there was close 20-percent peak-to-trough downturn in Saskatchewan through the third quarter, that’s solid progress, Scotiabank said. .

The two other Western provinces are likely to show stable new-car sales: Manitoba at 56,000 and British Columbia at 215,000.

“B.C. has been the second strongest auto market in Canada in the latest expansion and we expect sales to remain unchanged this year as economic activity remains solid outside of a less-hot Vancouver housing market,” Scotiabank noted.

Manufacturing boosts should buoy sales in Manitoba.

However, the Atlantic provinces are likely to see sales drop from 140,000 to 135,000 — this would be a four-year low, according to Scotiabank.

As for the central provinces, Quebec will likely see a dip from 465,000 new-car sales to 463,000, with Ontario’s new-car sales declining from 802,000 to 796,000.

Granted, Ontario’s projection is coming off a peak year and is largely due to “slightly lower” production expected for 2017. And though Quebec will likely be softer, this would be the second straight year of more than 460,000 sales. Higher export volume and the country’s highest leasing penetration are driving this strength, Scotiabank said.

Following several years of record new-vehicle sales in Canada, purchases are likely to lower in 2017, according to the latest Scotiabank Global Auto Report.

This year, Canada’s car volumes can be expected to be handicapped by recent price increases for new cars and light trucks, as well as lower replacement demand than in the U.S., said the report.

There were 1.9 million new-vehicle sales in Canada in 2015, with 2016 sales estimated to have reached 1.95 million units. The forecast for 2017 is a modest dip to 1.94 million. 

This is still higher than the 1.27 million annual sales averaged between 1990 and 1999, the 1.61 million from 2000-13 and the 1.85 million new cars sold in 2014. 

"In the United States, we see increased replacement demand, growing consumer confidence and attractive financing options, lifting sales for the third consecutive record year," said Scotiabank senior economist and auto industry specialist Carlos Gomes, in a news release.

There will likely be 1.96 million new vehicles sold in Canada this year, compared to 1.90 million in 2015, according to the latest Scotiabank Global Auto Report.

That also compares favorably to historical levels over the last quarter-century, which Scotiabank detailed in a data set included in the report.

From 1990 to 1999, new-car sales averaged 1.27 million in Canada. From 2000-2012, they were at 1.59 million. There were 1.74 million new-vehicle sales in 2013 and 1.85 million in 2014.

By province group, Scotiabank forecasts that this year, sales in Atlantic provinces will be even with year-ago figures (140,000), with annual sales in Central provinces (Quebec and Ontario) increasing from 1.21 million units to 1.27 million.

Meanwhile, new-car sales for Western provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia) are expected to decline from 553,000 to 544,000.

As far as the most recently completed month, Scotiabank said, Canada’s new-car sales in November were up double-digits. 

Scotiabank’s recently released Global Auto Report paints a rosy picture — one that pleasantly surprised analysts with the Toronto-based bank.

“We came into the year expecting global purchases to advance by about 3 percent,” Carlos Gomes, senior economist and auto industry specialist at Scotiabank, told AuSM Canada. “Through July, what we’ve seen is they’ve increased by 5 percent.

“We’re seeing labor markets continuing to do quite well. Labor markets are strengthening across developed markets. And that’s positive because it’s really the health of the labor market that drives vehicle sales."

Gomes noted a significant rebound in purchases outside of developed markets. “Last year sales in developing markets declined by 2 percent. That was the first decline that we’d seen since 2001. As economic conditions in emerging markets weakened, you had lower sales in developing markets. So the concern was when that was going to stabilize. What we’ve seen is they’ve seen a fairly nice bounce-back.

“We’re seeing most of Asia rebound nicely from last year’s declines,” he said, highlighting double-digit gains in China. “The only places where we’re still seeing weakness internationally is we’re still seeing large declines in Russia and more importantly, Brazil is the weakest market.”

The report notes that while gains are expected to moderate through year-end, 2016 represents the seventh consecutive annual new-vehicle sales increase and surpasses the previous upcycle that lasted six years. Strengthening labor markets and improving financial conditions suggest that the upswing will continue in 2017.

North American record

In North America, new-vehicle sales exceeded 20 million units last year for the first time in 2015, and have increased an additional 3 percent year-over-year through July.

Mexico is leading the North American sales gains, with volumes surging 18 percent so far this year, thanks to a strong labor market and accelerating credit growth. Auto loan growth has picked up 15 percent year over year, even as interest rates have started to increase.

Sales in Canada have gained momentum this year after last year’s record high of 1.9 million, with sales gains in seven out of 10 provinces.

U.S. sales rose to an annualized 17.9 million units in July, the highest level of the year. This rebound was driven by light trucks, as households replace aging sedans with crossover utilities and pickup trucks.

Scotiabank expects this trend will continue to lift sales, as more than 40 percent of the U.S. fleet is at least 13 years old, and there are still almost 50 million vehicles on the road that were built before 2000. The latest sales gain reduced U.S. inventories 2 percent below a year ago and points to continued output gains in the coming months.

North American sales are expected to top 21 million for the year.

"The health of the U.S. consumer is the main driver of the North American sales outlook, and most indicators continue to point to ongoing gains," the report noted. "U.S. job growth is advancing by nearly 2 percent year over year, vehicle affordability remains near record highs and there is no evidence of deterioration in the automotive finance market.

“As a result, we expect U.S. purchases to continue to move higher for the remainder of the year and in 2017.”

Focus on Canada

Vehicle sales are advancing in seven of 10 provinces. Ontario and British Columbia are leading the way with gains through June of 9 percent and 7 percent, respectively, with Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland seeing declines of about 7 percent, 4-5 percent and 1 percent, respectively, according to Gomes.

Volumes appear to be stabilizing in the hard-hit oil-producing provinces, with the decline in Alberta moderating in recent months from the double-digit fall-off reported through February, the report noted.

On the used side, prices in Canada have increased this year, Gomes said, after declines in early 2015.

He attributed this to both internal and external demand. “The Canadian dollar makes it attractive for U.S. dealers to come up here. Given that we have had a lot of demand from dealers in U.S., this gives lift in Canadian prices.

“Based on the info we are able to get from Statistics Canada surveys,” he continued, “used-vehicle sales in Canada are even stronger than the improvement in the new market.”

Click to access the full report.  

Mazda Canada and Hyundai Auto Canada Corp. each recently celebrated significant sales milestones during deliveries of some of the automakers’ most popular models.

First over at Mazda, OEM officials highlighted their two-millionth sale in Canada with one lucky customer, Bruno-Pierre Gougeon. The milestone vehicle sold was a 2016 Mazda3, which is Mazda Canada’s best-selling vehicle, with over half a million sold in Canada since 2003.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the automaker pointed out this vehicle was sold by Mazda Canada's largest volume dealer, Albi le Géant Mazda in Mascouche, Quebec.

To mark the occasion, Mazda Canada held a celebration event at Albi le Géant Mazda for the owner of the two millionth Mazda sold in Canada with members of Mazda Canada and the dealership in attendance.

In addition to becoming part of the Mazda family, Bruno also received two years of payments waived along with two years of complimentary maintenance.

“This is a great milestone achievement for Mazda in Canada, and is the result of our challenger spirit that springs from our heritage in Hiroshima, Japan,” said David Klan, senior director of sales, marketing and regional operations for Mazda Canada.

“We love to share our exceptional products with Canadian customers who also believe that driving matters — people like Bruno, who is proudly driving this milestone vehicle,” Klan continued.

Mazda Canada entered the Canadian market in 1968 with less than 1,000 sales in their first year. As the years passed and more models were added to the lineup, the sales also grew with the model count.

The first full year to hit 10,000 sales happened in a mere three years, in 1971, and the next milestone of 50,000 annual sales occurred in 1991.

The most popular vehicle in 1991 was one of the vehicles that kicked off Mazda’s history in Canada — the B-Series truck.

500,000th Hyundai Elantra sold in Canada

Hot on the heels of the February launch of the all-new 2017 Elantra compact sedan, Hyundai Auto Canada announced it has reached a sales milestone with the Elantra nameplate, achieving 500,000 cumulative sales since June 1991.

The automaker indicated the milestone sale — a 2017 Elantra GL — recently was delivered to a customer in Montreal.

With the arrival of the 2017 model, six generations of Elantra models have been displayed in Hyundai dealership showrooms coast-to-coast. For company executives, the all-new Elantra has some big shoes to fill.

“The fifth generation Elantra won both North American and Canadian Car of the Year awards in 2012 and has been Canada’s second-best selling passenger car since 2013, so we have high expectations for this all-new vehicle,” said Don Romano, president and chief executive officer for Hyundai Auto Canada.

“The Elantra, in all of its versions, is our most successful nameplate, by far. It's the first Hyundai vehicle to reach 500,000 sales and is an important player in the country’s compact car market,” Romano went on to say.