Additional subprime paper impacts November ABS readings


S&P Global Ratings described what more subprime paper flowing into the auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) market did to its readings for November.

According to a report published this week, the overall ABS market enjoyed some “mild” improvements in November. Analysts determined that prime collateral performance showed little weakness in losses, delinquencies and recoveries. In addition, the first-quarter 2017 prime vintage is performing better than the 2016 annual vintage.

Although subprime experienced a rise in delinquencies from October, S&P Global Ratings explained this figure was partially attributed to concentration among a few issuers.

Analysts reported that prime net losses declined slightly month-over-month and year-over-year to 0.66 percent in November 2017 from 0.72 percent in October 2017 and 0.70 percent in November 2016.

On the subprime front, S&P Global Ratings noticed the net loss rate decreased to 7.76 percent in November from 7.98 percent in October and 8.44 percent in November 2016. The firm indicated the lower figure is due to several issuers reporting improved performance.

Analysts also mentioned the high volume of new subprime auto loan ABS deals entering their composite since November 2016 has also contributed to the year-over-year reduction. As of November, 32 new deals with a total collateral amount of approximately $19.27 billion were added to the index. This pushed the outstanding collateral amount for November up to approximately $36.42 billion compared with $33.59 billion a year earlier.

“The rise in new issue deals diluted the year-over-year weighted net loss rate because the transactions have lower losses and contribute higher value to weights during their initial stage,” according to S&P Global Ratings.

Analysts went on to mention that from January 2001 through December 2017, upgrades of U.S. auto loan ABS have outweighed downgrades by nearly 52-1.

In 2017, S&P Global Ratings upgraded 322 U.S. auto ABS tranches, affirmed 374, and downgraded none. Of the 322 upgrades, 100 tranches were from prime transactions, and 222 were from subprime.