Kontos says hurricane impact on off-lease prices is ‘over’

CARMEL, Ind. - 

While the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently described how much hurricane recovery is left to be completed — especially in Texas — KAR Auction Services chief economist Tom Kontos declared the wholesale price impact stemming from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma — particularly on off-lease units — is “over.”

According to ADESA Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of wholesale used-vehicle prices by vehicle model class, wholesale used-vehicle prices in January averaged $10,980, which is 1.6 percent higher compared to December and 0.3 percent higher relative to January 2017. 

Kontos pointed out that prices increased at a higher monthly rate for cars than trucks, but were down on an annual basis.

“Wholesale used-vehicle prices started the year in the pattern that characterized much of 2017 in the months prior to hurricane season; namely, car prices tended to fall while truck prices provided a boost to average wholesale values,” Kontos said in his latest edition of the Kontos Kommentary that was distributed on Friday.

“In January, car prices continued to show year-over-year price declines, while truck prices did the opposite, but that situation is moving towards parity, as indicated by strong month-over-month increases in car prices,” he continued.

As he’s shared for some time now, Kontos offered extra details about fleet and off-lease units that are 3 years old and have less than 45,000 miles. When holding constant for sale type, model-year age, mileage and model class segment, prices were down on a year-over-year basis for both midsize cars and midsize SUV/CUVs. Car prices dipped by $43 to $11,513 while prices for those SUVs and CUVs dropped by $222 to settle $20,236.

“As anticipated in last month’s Kommentary, the ‘lift’ in wholesale prices from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, particularly for trucks, is over,” Kontos reiterated.

Kontos went on to mention that average wholesale prices for used vehicles remarketed by manufacturers in January softened by 3.7 percent month-over-month but rose 7.9 percent year-over-year.

He noted prices for fleet/lease consignors were up 4.1 percent sequentially but down 0.3 percent annually.

Finally, Kontos added that average prices for dealer consignors were down 1.7 percent versus December and down 0.6 percent relative to January of last year.

Kontos elaborated about the wholesale market and at the top of this page.

ADESA Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Trends

   Average  Price  ($/Unit)  Latest  Month Versus
   January 2018  December 2017  January 2017  Prior Month  Prior Year
           
 Total All Vehicles  $10,980  $10,804  $10,945  1.6%  0.3%
           
 Total Cars  $8,751  $8,502  $8,867  2.9%  -1.3%
 Compact Car  $6,698  $6,452  $6,639  3.8%  0.9%
 Midsize Car  $7,880  $7,651  $8,044  3.0%  -2.0%
 Full-size Car  $7,853  $7,551  $8,300  4.0%  -5.4%
 Luxury Car  $13,170  $12,959  $13,472  1.6%  -2.2%
 Sporty Car  $13,987  $13,846  $13,041  1.0%  7.3%
           
 Total Trucks  $13,074  $12,966  $12,990  0.8%  0.6%
 Minivan  $9,048  $8,891  $9,289  1.8%  -2.6%
 Full-size Van  $12,980  $12,619  $12,430  2.9%  4.4%
 Compact SUV/CUV  $10,680  $10,508  $10,762  1.6%  -0.8%
 Midsize SUV/CUV  $11,578  $11,148  $11,854  3.9%  -2.3%
 Full-size SUV/CUV  $14,648  $14,856  $13,715  -1.4%  6.8%
 Luxury SUV/CUV  $18,446  $18,711  $18,697  -1.4%  -1.3%
 Compact Pickup  $9,306  $9,209  $8,954  1.1%  3.9%
 Full-size Pickup  $16,190  $16,189  $16,039  0.0%  0.9%

Source: ADESA Analytical Services.


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