November’s wholesale price projection not far from October’s decrease

McLEAN, Va. - 

Along with recapping what happened in October, the analyst team at J.D. Power Valuation Services projected how wholesale price trends might land in November.

Analysts didn’t just photocopy their reports for the November issue of Guidelines, but the figures certainly were similar.

J.D. Power Valuation Services is expecting wholesale prices for vehicles up to 8 years old to decline by approximately 2.4 percent in November. That projection marks a bit of an improvement from the 3.1-percent decline analysts recorded during the same month last year.

“At the segment level in general, car losses are still expected to outpace those of trucks and SUVs,” analysts said in the report.

Considering a full-year forecast, J.D. Power Valuations Services has its expectations at a 5.4-percent wholesale price decline; again a bit of an improvement because of the impact from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Looking further ahead, analysts suspect that losses should decelerate in 2018, landing below 3 percent.

As far as how the October numbers settled, J.D. Power Valuations Services pinpointed that wholesale prices dropped by 2.2 percent, reflecting price support as replacement demand from the hurricanes kept dealers and consumers on the hunt for vehicles.

During the past five years, analysts pointed out that October’s price softening typically came in at about 3.2 percent.

As a result of what analysts called a “solid” performance in October, the J.D. Power Valuation Services’ Seasonally Adjusted Used Vehicle Price Index increased for the third month in a row. The reading rose by 1.1 points to come in at 114.5.

Through the first 10 months of the year, the index is down 6.2 percent compared to the same period in 2016.

Drilling down to the segment level, the report mentioned mainstream car losses were directionally in line with “the status quo” in October.

Subcompact cars headlined the declines with a drop of 4.6 percent in October, outpacing the average decline for the month of 3.8 percent that analysts spotted during the past five years.

Not far off that pace, analysts noticed midsize van prices dipped by 3.7 percent. However, during the past five years, prices for these units have dropped by 4.2 percent on average in October since 2012.

While large pickups had generated an extended price strength streak, J.D. Power Valuation Services determined prices for these units softened for the second straight month in October, sliding by 2 percent. That figure was the most significant price drop for large pickups recorded so far in 2017.

Switching over to luxury units, analysts described trends in this space as “mixed.”

Large luxury utilities dropped the most in October as prices for these models slid by 4.1 percent, which happened to be 2 percentage points more than what analysts have seen in October during the past five years.

Finally, large luxury cars decreased by nearly an identical figure, dropping by 3.8 percent.

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